July 31, 2006
A peek into the future - part 2 (or The Cross-Over Effect)
So a few of you have shown interest in what I am up to...always nice to see...so here is as additional peek at the logo with a bit added :)
Dropping a bit extra into the logo is easy..but telling you a bit more about the project...well...let me give it a go without giving to much away yet...apologies for the length and possible rambling to follow :)
Digital media distribution and consumption is the future...I think we all agree with that...but as I have stated before, both on this blog and at conferences I have spoken at in the past, especially at the 2005 ACMA Broadcasting Conference in Canberra where I did the whole "we walk like a duck and quack like a duck so we must be a duck...just a new sort of duck" spiel about TPN to the old media world attendees...the old world media is not about to die any time soon...its just going to morph dramatically over time as new content creation and distribution technologies, like blogs, podcasts and vlogs take hold and the long tail plays itself out to to its fullest.
Taking about the long tail, I am part way through reading Chris Andersons recently published book of the same name, and his logic that the old world of "hits" is dead is pretty sort of true, but I think it still has a while to play out until it dies completely. On second thought, I actually put "hits" in the same bucket as old media...they won't die completely...but the way that the old "hit making factory" works will continue to morph and change dramatically because of the long tail and other developments. I believe that "hits" will still hold a place in our world because that is just human nature. The office water cooler might be replaced by blogs and online communities, but it still creates the same outcome...people talk about stuff they have heard, watched or read and recommend it to other people...those people check it out and if they like it they recommend it to other people and pretty soon you a have a hit...or at least something with a large and entrenched audience. In all honesty, I think that the long tail, while being hugely important and the biggest and important part of the chain, will also become one of the filters for the hit factory.
Stars and hits will continue to rise and shine from the old world distribution channels of TV ,film, music and print but stars and hits will also rise from the new digital channel. I think what we will start to see is a "cross-over effect" start to occur more and more often. The stars and hits from the old world channels are appearing in the new world channels by starting websites, blogs, podcasts, etc. and this will start to be true in reverse.
The best, and most known of the bloggers will, and have already, started to appear in traditional paper print by writing books and being asked to write columns for magazines and newspapers. The best podcasts and podcasters will, and are already, being lured to do work for radio. Musicians who stick songs on myspace and into podcasts are being wined and dined by the record labels. How long will it be before the best vloggers start to have their material shown via terrestrial and digital broadcasters into TV land or a hit movie comes from two pro-ams with a HD video camera???
Both the old world media and the new world media companies and economy have many things in common, but none more so than the fact that they are all about getting media/content into the hands of the public that want to access it. The other thing they have in common is that both old and new media need to make money to cover production and distribution costs. You can make a podcast pretty cheaply, but you still need a computer, a microphone and a server (or part of one) to store either the file or the blog/RSS feed on. OK...so a radio station needs a lot more money for its studio/equipment, a license for some spectrum, a freakin' huge antenna and various other costs for overheads like staff to do the same thing, but either way it costs money.
The "cross-over effect" works both ways by making it easier and cheaper for the old world media guys to get to the new world audience and for the new world media guys to get the cash and exposure they need to continue doing what they are doing and to possibly reach a different, yet still important audience.
I believe that the "cross-over effect" (you should be getting the feeling that I like that term by now) will become larger and larger because of things like blogs, podcasts and vlogs that make enough money from things like Google Ads to ensure that the content creator can do it for a living and not just out of love (or ego). Add to this things like digital print, digital radio, digital TV, mobile TV, IPTV and the other emerging digital distribution channels, and its going to be so much easier for the best-of -the-best of the new world to get out in front of an old world media audience that isn't quite ready yet for the major and disruptive technological changes that are happening around them.
So what has this to do with my future...well...you will just have to wait a bit longer for the answer to that one but lets just say that the "cross-over effect" will play a part in what we are doing.
Oh yeah...since everyone else seems to making graphs to represent some sort of effect lately I hope my little picture of "The Cross-Over Effect" makes sense ;)
Posted by Mick (SplaTT) Stanic at July 31, 2006 6:28 PM
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